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US election live blog

US election live blog

 

08:38: President Donald J Trump. My son calls him Donald Fart. After that victory speech, I agree that he is a gas bag. 

08:22: Croissants bought, classroom lights turned on. Waiting for the students. What shall we learn about today then? What about how the man who started the birther movement believes he can make America heal again? 

07:34: Trump is likely to be elected on the smallest vote percentage since 1996. He should be reminded of that every time he claims a mandate to do anything. 

07:22: If I were Clinton, I wouldn't go quietly. I wouldn't be gracious or accommodating. I would do to Trump what he would do to me. I would threaten legal action, call into question voter suppression, ask for recounts and challenge challenge challenge. I would do all this and more so if it turns out that I had won the popular vote. I would learn the lessons of 2000 and avoid passivity in the face of a well organised opposition. I would begin the task immediately of de-legitimising Trump, even if ultimately I had to concede defeat. Alas, as with many of Clinton's underwhelming decisions (picking Tim Kaine rather than Sanders as her running mate springs to mind), I expect to be disappointed. 

07:19: Once again, unelected judges may have decided a presidential election. The 2014 decision to strike down key aspects of the Voting Rights Act resulted in polling station closures in Arizona Georgia and North Carolina, and specifically in African-American districts. The system is rigged. 

06:42: So am now showered, dressed and excited to get my train to work. Why is everyone looking so glum? 

05:58: Young voters have chosen third party candidates in much higher numbers than the Clinton team expected. They wanted Bernie, not Hilary.  It is looking a little like Bernie may have been the smarter choice, perhaps? 

05:46: Looking back at my previous comments on Pennsylvania, perhaps the state cannot be considered Russia. Yet Trump can most certainly be seen as Napoleon.

05:40: If you are black or a Latino, what are you feeling right now? Some 88% of African-Americans and 65% of Hispanics voted for Clinton, yet 58% of whites were won over by Trump, according to exit polls. These statistics point to perhaps the most dangerous division in the US - that of race. Trump has opposed the Black Lives Matter campaign and supported the police over  allegations of brutality. 

05:35: What does Russia do with Britain now? After the British government warned that Russian cyber crime was a growing threat, it probably thought it would have an ally in the White House who would stand up to Putin. Now we are likely to have Trump, whose ties to Moscow are murky at best. Will that embolden Russia in its cyber efforts, or will Trump cut some beautiful deal? 

05:30: There is a chance that Clinton wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, similar to Al Gore in 2000. She is only one million votes behind in the popular vote.

05:25: It appears, incredibly, that Latinos have voted in fewer numbers for Clinton than for Obama. Perhaps Hispanic Americans are just like human beings after all - they are complex and not keen to be labelled as part of one homogenous group. Perhaps President Trump will appreciate this fact and be less prone to deport them. 

04:30: And yet. And yet! Clinton could still eek out a stay of execution if she wins in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and also picks up one of three electoral college votes in Nebraska. That would produce a 269-269 split, and the newly elected House of Representatives would then decide upon the president. 

04:25 GMT: According to CNN, the Republicans really worked on their ground game in the rust belt after the 2012 election. Looks like it is paying off.  

04:17: Perhaps Clinton's basket of deplorables comment proved more long-lasting damage than previously thought. 

4:07: This is a rigged election. Well, it is in North Carolina. The voter suppression on display there harks back to Jim Crow. The Supreme Court recently struck down key parts on the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which required segregationist states to ask for permission to change election laws. With that buffer now removed, these states can introduce further restrictions on voting. A Trump Supreme Court nominee will steer that court even further to the right. In short, the civil rights achievements of Martin Luther King et al are under serious threat. 

4:00: So, let's tear up some of those A2 Politics resources. TV debates clearly don't matter, since Clinton performed far better than Trump in all three meetings. National Party Conventions left the Republicans bitter and divided, and the Democrats united, yet Trump looks like he could be heading for the White House. It is still too early to call, but that perfect night that Trump needed looks like it is coming to pass. 

03:54: Fivethirtyeight's Clare Malone has emphasised the growing urban/rural divide: "Forty-one percent of rural voters said in exit polls that life for the next generation will be worse than it is today; only 27 percent of urban voters and 35 percent of suburban voters felt the same way. A whopping 72 percent of rural voters think the economy is doing poorly, compared with 57 percent of urban voters. And as far as which candidate is best suited to solve the economy’s problems? Sixty-three percent of rural voters say Trump is the man for the job, and 49 percent of suburban voters agree; city-dwellers, meanwhile, think Clinton is best suited for the task — she garners 57 percent of their support."

03:49: Trump won 51% of the female vote in Ohio, according to exit polls. 

03:32: What would a Trump presidency look like? The New Yorker's Evan Osnos has painted a picture of the property tycoon's first 100 days, which would seek through executive orders to undo the Obama presidency. Those who hope for the best, for the office of the presidency to impose moderation, may be disappointed. Osnos points to studies that show presidents typically achieve around 70% of their campaign promises. That wall, those deportation orders, those anti-abortion judges, those huge tax cuts, the encouraging of nuclear proliferation, have to be taken at face value. America is about to move in a sharply conservative direction, should Trump win.

03:30: Nate Silver is now giving Trump a 55% chance of winning the election. 

03:24: So goes Ohio, so goes the nation? 

03:20: Shy Tories and "Secret Trumpets" appear to be forcing the narrative of this election night. I dismissed the comments of a friend a few days back, who believed that the polls were wrong. He said that people opting for Trump would rather do so on the quiet, for fear of being labelled racist. 

02:55: Some women like Trump. In some states it appears that gender hasn't played a role by as much as Clinton would have liked. Early reports suggest that only 51% of Floridian women voted for her. 

2:50: And now Dow Futures is suggesting a stock market tumble. Flashback to the chart on Brexit night, showing the pound tanking. 

02:47: I do think that Clinton's last few days on the campaign trail were rather bizarre, regardless of whether she wins. Appearing on stage with glitzy singers and Hollywood superstars just reinforces the feeling that she operates in her bubble, while Trump appeared on stage alone and spoke to rust-belt voters about how the system is rigged. Small surprise that Michigan is therefore close. 

02:34: It seems crazy that vote tallies are made public when people are still voting out West. 

02:31: Yes, this could well be Brexit. If Minnesota is in play, then it could well be president Trump. Minnesota didn't even vote for Reagan. 

02:12: Just want to remind everyone that I was wrong on Brexit, wrong on the Italian earthquake. 

02:10: "Make no mistake, he [Trump] can win this election". Harry Enton from Fivethirtyeight.com

02:00: Democrats are worrying. I am worrying. The world is worrying. What is going on in Florida? 

01:44: Cities versus rural; women versus men; white versus non-white; college educated versus non-college educated. The 50/50 nation.

01:40: CNN is showing that Trump is ahead in Florida with 91% of the votes counted, but that most of the remaining 9% of the votes to come in are in Democratic strongholds. Interesting that Florida appears to efficient in counting its votes this time round. It's only taken 16 years to sort it out. 

01:32: We could be up all night even if Clinton wins convincingly, since the swing states are all very close. Trump has to essentially win most of them. 

01:20: Sky News is showing a Pennsylvania exit poll giving Clinton 50% to Trump's 46%. The state appears to Republicans what the Russian campaign was to Napoleon. They always think they can win it and devote precious time and resources to its conquest, which ultimately proves futile. 

01:10: ABC News has some more exit poll data, which shows that more people were bothered by Trump's treatment of women than by Clinton's emails, but that the concern varied from state to state. In Texas, Clinton's emails bothered voters far more than Trump's misogyny.

01:05 Former student and Hammersmith and Fulham councillor Larry Culhane is jealous about my shout out to my current students. So, to level things up, here's a shout out to all of my former students. May all your Trump nightmares steadily dissipate. 

00:57 Conservative pundit Ross Douthat is predicting a decisive Clinton victory: "Trump will win Ohio and Iowa and outperform Romney in the course of losing Michigan and Pennsylvania. Elsewhere he’ll slightly underperform Romney en route to losing North Carolina, Florida and Nevada. The only major twist will be a Trump electoral vote from northern Maine. The popular vote will be Hillary 50, Trump 44. The  will be 322-216. The Senate will be 50-50, with Tim Kaine as the decider." Which party controls the Senate is almost as important as who occupies the White House. A Clinton White House would find it very difficult to get her cabinet approved, let alone Supreme Court nominees, should the Senate remain with the GOP. 

00:52: Nate Silver has cited the exit polls in Ohio, which shows Trump leading amongst men by 15 points but losing amongst women by 14 points. So perhaps this election is not just about class and race. 

00:45: On your screens right now the vote totals are showing Trump leads in Virginia and Florida, but they really mean absolutely nothing at this stage, with less than 10% of the votes counted. If there are wide margins of difference in these early vote counts, the explanation lies in which counties are quickest to count. My guess is that the early vote totals are compiled from conservative, rural areas. In short, don't panic.

If Trump wins Virginia outright, then panic. 

00:33: Shooting at polling station in California. The NRA has already called for teachers to carry guns. Now polling clerks too? 

00:19: There are parallels with Brexit, for sure. Those with a university degree are likely to vote for Clinton in larger numbers, and those without one are likely to break for Trump. In other words, the divide comes down to class. Outward looking, more secure folk are happy remain with the status quo, while those who are angry and feel left behind are opting to punch the establishment in the nether regions, even if it flies in the face of self interest. Perhaps the difference will therefore come down to demographics. There are more Hispanics as a percentage of registered voters in the US then there were Eastern Europeans in the UK. Latinos are the Poles of America. 

00:14: Women make up around 56% of voters, according to data cited by Fivethirtyeight's live blog, a rather considerable increase on 2012.

00:06: Georgia is deemed "too early to project". That's not a good sign for Trump. 

00:00 GMT: The projections are coming in. What a silly system. Whatever happened to counting the votes and then announcing them? Then again, we love the drama, don't we?

23:56: The electorate is changing somewhat. The proportion of whites making up the electorate is slightly down. The electorate is slightly less old, and slightly more educated. Let's hope the decisions taken are slightly less stupid. 

23:51: Oh no, the Beeb having nothing to say, so they are rolling out Vine and his graphs. He is trying to tell us how US presidential candidates used to be more popular than they are today. If I ran the show, I would dispense with the graphics and say something really incisive, like, erm, "US presidential candidates are not longer as popular as they once were." Something like that, perhaps. And then move on. 

23:45: Big shout out to my students at Reigate College, who are having an election party. You still have to come in for my 9am class, peeps! 

23:22: Forty out of fifty states have voted the same way for the last four presidential elections. Wonderful to see First Past the Post work its magic once again, making voting pointless in uncompetitive states, and forcing tactical voting in the few places where votes actually matter. Exit polls suggest a quarter of voters cast their ballot due to dislike of the other candidate. Why doesn't America introduce a preference system? That could well happen in Maine, where voters are deciding on a ballot initiative that would introduce the Alternative Vote for gubernatorial races. That's governor elections to you and me. 

23:21: CNN is reporting that a Trump internal poll shows him losing. 

22:52: The Republican autopsy of 2012 focused on how the party needed to reach out to Latino voters and to women. If Trump loses, the party could save a lot of money on new authors and just re-release it. It worked for Obama with Dreams from my Father. 

22:45: Some 69% of voters have expressed either dissatisfaction or anger with the federal government, but 54% of voters approve of President Obama. Meanwhile, 47% of voters surveyed want the country to move in a more conservative direction, while 48% want to either continue Obama's policies or move in a more liberal direction. What do all of these statistics show? A really divided electorate is what. 

22:20: The first exit polls are out and they bring some great news for Trump. He wins on unlikeability and, get this, on untrustworthiness. Despite Clinton's email scandal, 65% of respondents do not believe Trump to be honest, compared with 59% for Hilary. 

21:45: Good time to watch last night's Planet Earth on BBC iPlayer - the one with the snakes  catching the iguanas. Thrilling. Far from relaxing though 

21:00: Okay so here is my prediction. I think Clinton will win with a similar margin of victory to that of Obama four years ago. I think she will win between 320-330 Electoral College Votes. A few caveats ought to be given: I called Brexit wrong; I called the 2015 UK General Election wrong.

I didn't predict last week's earthquake in Italy. 

20:40: Slate is giving running commentary on the latest voting figures. It is suggesting that, well, people are voting. According to its turnout tracker, Clinton is winning in Florida and that more people have voted for her compared to Obama this time on election day four years ago.  

20:30 GMT: Some 80 million Americans are voting on legalising pot, according to the good people of the Five Thirty Eight Podcast. California is one such state to decide on this issue via a ballot initiative, a referendum organised by the people themselves as opposed to the government. Ballot initiatives are great for bigots. Voters have at various times opted to ban gay marriage, to outlaw road signs in Spanish, to end the non-existent existence of Sharia law, and one even threatened to quarantine people with HIV. Perhaps these voters need to smoke more weed. 

Welcome to de Souza's Digest's live blog of the US presidential election. 

 

 

Backwards - where America goes next

Backwards - where America goes next

Ukip in charge

Ukip in charge