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Welcome to my blog. I document my adventures in travel, style, and food. Hope you have a nice stay!

Where they must win

The BBC has finally given us what we need: a primary/caucus map that outlines who needs to win where in order to secure their party's nomination. However, it is a little simplistic. For more detailed analysis, head to www.electoral-vote.com/

In my view, an Obama victory in Nevada on 19th January is far more important than what pundits are suggesting. It will give him momentum going in to Super Tuesday and will indicate that he has made inroads into Clinton’s popularity amongst Hispanics. This would bode ill for her chances in the key state of California, where Latino leaders have rallied to her cause. A South Carolina victory would be good for any candidate, but it is vital for John Edwards to come at least second. Failure to do so could see his withdrawal from the race and likely endorsement of Obama. The question will then be can Obama take Edwards’ voters with him?

On the Republican side, Romney must win Michigan tomorrow, not least because he has spent a lot of time there and has made much of the fact that he was born there. If the people of Michigan turn against one of their own, surely every other state will as well? Giuliani must win in Florida on the 29th January, for the simple fact that this is the only state he has seriously campaigned in. McCain must win at least one more state between now and Super Tuesday on February 5th - momentum is a fickle child in a race as closely contested as this.

Role reversal

Where do you stand?